The anti-Trump vote is much deeper and wider than his base vote

In a revealing question about voting attitudes in 2020, a new Washington Post/ABC poll revealed that fully 55 percent of Americans say they will definitely NOT vote for Donald Trump, while only 28 percent pledged that they definitely will cast their vote for him.

Those promising to vote against Trump included 76 percent of nonwhite voters, 62 percent of female voters, and 54 percent of college-educated white voters. But what’s interesting about those numbers is how remarkably consistent they are with voting patterns in the midterms last year. 

As CNN’s Ronald Brownstein pointed out, 2018 exit polls showed 76 percent of nonwhites, 59 percent of women, 53 percent of college-educated whites voted for Democrats in House races. 

The real question will be turnout, and whether Trump can survive in the Electoral College with a solid 50-plus percent hardened against his reelection. The 55 percent promising not to vote for Trump in 2020 is also pretty consistent from the 56-57 percent who pledged to vote against Trump in a pair of polls earlier this year, around the time of the government shutdown. 

 

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